So, we are all wondering how long this pandemic and social distancing will last. Based on studies from the Imperial College of London and a separate but almost identical study from Harvard, we are looking at waves of virus breakouts and then required social restrictions over the next 18+ months. This is all in order to keep the pandemic in check and not overwhelm our health care system. As you can see in the graph below, researchers at Imperial College London proposed that governments should “impose more extreme social distancing measures every time admissions to intensive care units (ICUs) start to spike, and relax them each time admissions fall.” 1 Accordingly, researchers at Harvard's T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston suggests “that multiple targeted periods of ‘social distancing’ of various kinds will likely be necessary for the US before any vaccine is found for the disease.” 2 So, we might need to be ready for this wave of allowed normal social activity then a rise in covid cases followed by required social distancing. Who knows if the government will do then as they are doing now as far as school closings and such. Now that they have done these measures of “shelter-in-place” and we are getting “used” to it, this may become the “new norm” for a while.
Paul Eyler 1 https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/ 2 https://www.zdnet.com/article/harvard-researchers-social-distancing-during-covid-19-may-have-to-be-turned-on-and-off-like-a-spigot/
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Region 7 Science Paul Eyler M.Ed | News |